What Happens When Energy Policy Ignores Storage ft. Dr. Radovan Kopecek | Soliverse Ep. 37

What happens when energy policy plans the future grid, but leaves storage out of the equation? In this episode of Soliverse | The Future of Solar, host Peter Pongracz sits down with Dr Radovan Kopecek, Co-Founder and Director at ISC Konstanz, to unpack why the next phase of solar depends on battery storage, local manufacturing, and clearer industrial strategy across Europe, the US, India, and China.

Dr Kopecek shares a sharp global view on solar manufacturing, hybrid projects, battery economics, European industrial policy, cybersecurity, and why space may become one of the most unexpected frontiers for crystalline silicon. This is a grounded, wide-ranging conversation for anyone working in utility scale solar, energy storage, renewable manufacturing, or the future of the grid.

About the guest
Dr Radovan Kopecek is Co-Founder and Director at ISC Konstanz, the International Solar Energy Research Center Konstanz. His work spans high-efficiency solar cell technology, PV manufacturing strategy, battery-adjacent energy systems thinking, training, and emerging solar applications including space.

Guest links
ISC Konstanz
ISC Konstanz, solar cells for satellites
LinkedIn
TikTok
PV Trainings
Important PV events

Referenced organizations and events
ESA, European Space Agency
DLR, German Aerospace Center
IEEE PVSC
IEEE PVSC, Area 12 Industry Perspective
EU PVSEC
EU PVSEC Programme, Industry Summit
Asian PVSEC
Gigawatt PV Tech Conference
Taiyang News
RCT Solutions
Premier Energies

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Transcript

Coming up...

SPEAKER_00 0:00

In Germany we did a calculation, the Ministry of Economy did a calculation how Germany should be positioned in the energy sector in future, and they just forgot to include batteries inside.

SPEAKER_01 0:13

That is Dr. Adolan Kopesek, a physicist and co-founder of ISC Constance. He thinks that one of the biggest mistakes in energy transition is planning the future grid without fully accounting for storage, even when costs are falling fast.

SPEAKER_00 0:30

For Germany, of course, the last puzzle piece is long-term storage, and many people say that hydrogen will be the final solution. I also agree with that.

SPEAKER_01 0:39

He breaks down what the system is still missing and why long-duration solutions matter if you want reliability through the winter as well.

SPEAKER_00 0:48

Even if the cell is bombarded by protons and electrons, with some procedure, when the sun is not shining, we can repair the cell and the satellite in the dark zone.

SPEAKER_01 0:59

Today he shares why the next phase of solar is inseparable from storage and how new efficiency technology is opening unexpected frontiers, including space. By the end of this conversation, you will learn what is slowing policy and Greece down, what solutions actually close the gap, and where technology is heading next. I'm Peter Pongrats, and this is Soliverse, the future of solar.

SPEAKER_02 1:26

Nice to finally see you again. And uh, it's been a while, right? It's been almost half a year. Now we we met in August, and uh you've been touring the world ever since, right? So um why why don't you tell us about that?

SPEAKER_00 1:37

Thanks, Peter, for having me again. Yes, we chatted half a year ago, and um, as you know, uh everything is even going faster now. And uh we have uh interesting politics, economy, uh and uh yes, in in PV, the world, PV world is turning even faster. And uh China, there are many changes in India. They plan to go to 100 gigawatt uh vertical integrated production. You know, they have now a huge module capacity, even overcapacities, so they are not not learning from uh the overcapacity in in uh China, and uh now they are planning to uh go towards 70 gigawatt cell production, also in Gottwafer. We can maybe uh dive deeper into the subject later. In uh Europe, there's also now movement. I don't know if you heard the latest news that there will be three billion uh granted for even German uh vertical integrated production. I've seen bits and pieces of that. Yes, I would also like to know uh what this exactly is. And uh in US it's even crazier. You know, Elon Musk now announcing he wants to go 100 gigawatt uh production in US and uh also vertical integrated, and uh people do not know exactly what it is about because he's talking uh from Tesla side, not from SpaceX. I mean, in SpaceX, he has also big plans to do to put uh computing centers into the space, but let's say that's that's uh a crazy story. But I believe what is happening in the US, what we also thought half a year ago, that this announcement of uh mini nuclear power stations, you know, uh Amazon was telling, yeah, now the computing centers will be powered by mini nuclear power stations, that's complete nonsense, of course. This will be done by by uh solar and storage because storage now became so low cost that uh that's the only thing it makes sense to set up uh huge capacity of uh electricity production. So I think it's about it's about this. And uh Elon, when he decides to go, I think he will go.

What has Trump-era policy changed for US solar manufacturing?

SPEAKER_02 4:04

Yeah. I mean the the smart lesson to be learned is the you never bet against Elon. You know, like whether you like him or not, he will execute on the plan. So and and and uh maybe maybe let's start with um what we discussed. Uh it was August we spoke, and now it's February 2026. So many things have changed, you know. Trump um has been in the office for quite a while, and uh the US is turned a little bit upside down, and it depends on which state you are in, you know, your renewables are a little bit threatened as well. Um, how do you see that? Like, how do you see that change in this short period of time? And uh what do you expect to see in the future? Maybe let's not even look further than 2026.

SPEAKER_00 4:44

So let's first look at at the US. Uh and uh they started well with uh uh the Inflation Reduction Act. Now it's changed to this uh big, beautiful bill. There are a couple of uh producing companies in in the US that will certainly continue because uh they did build their business plan not only on the Inflation Reduction Act, but there are many other incentives, and also what is in favor of producing still in US are the import tariffs, of course. And uh so Saniva, QCells, ES Foundry uh are producing perk at the moment. I believe that uh Topcon will come now because SilfApp is now uh ramping up. They had some problems with some rules in the country, and uh now also T1 is quite active. And I think what's a big game changer is in in the US is that Corning is now coming with uh seven gigawatt capacity of Ingot Waifer, and uh they of course want to have local production of cells as well, and uh they have also acquired uh JSOL and uh uh so so module production, and and uh now with Elon's announcements. I think if we can put all the pieces together, I also think that in US we will have similarly to India uh a second PV produ uh production hub in uh in the future. And uh Trump is building on local production and uh high import tariffs, and uh so let's say the the situation is us is not so bad. And uh in in India it's it's now even better with production-linked incentives, and uh also the Chinese are now trying to assist the Indian players because you know in China it's now forbidden to uh bring another uh production uh facilities in China online, so they have restrictions. For example, uh they can only let's say uh produce 30% of their capacities, otherwise, there is a uh market entry, so it's it's extremely strict. So the Chinese are looking now for possibilities where where to expand, and Middle East is one option for them. Uh India now as well, but I believe also Europe. If uh Europe now puts money on the table for starting local production, then it could be an interesting market. So let's say um compared to half a year ago, I'm I'm now more positive about that uh localization of production will really happen in future.

SPEAKER_02 7:31

And on our previous chat, we talked about you know potentially working together with China, you know, to to basically kind of reverse outsource or resource to Europe and basically both on the factory design and the manufacturing lines, but also the know-how a little bit as well. So has that actually made any any sort of meaningful progress on this perspective?

SPEAKER_00 7:51

Yes, I mean there are many announcements now that, for example, Holosolis is working with Trina and uh uh Carbon has now uh Longi on board, so you can also see in which technology they are now more uh investing. Holos is going the top conway, Carbon more the the back contact way, because we also believe this will be the future technology. And also in India, as I told you now, the the companies that Chinese companies uh try to connect. What happened in India the last half a year was extremely worrying because uh let's say the corporation of Chinese companies often uh were uh meant to send the second hand equipment to India uh so that they are able to expand in in China, and and that is not a good sign because I mean the Indian market is not a secondhand market, and uh now I think it will be reversed because they a couple of companies have already bad experience with secondhand equipment, and uh so hopefully this will stop. And uh I hope that the cooperation will be on another level that that also the Chinese will go to India and also uh develop technologies together with India. This is what we are doing actually in India. You know, we have corporations with a couple of companies producing topcorn, and they are already asking for back contact. So, our mission in India is uh we are promising to the companies that we are not only uh sending German equipment there and uh make the installations, but we are also uh uh open to stay in the company and and help them with RD and future developments for PEC contact and uh tandems.

What did China understand about PV manufacturing before everyone else?

SPEAKER_02 9:45

That's very interesting. And and maybe if you can tell the audience about what you have been doing in China, besides the the high-level things of basically showing them how uh what are the best ways of producing, but but but I've seen you know you've presented at many conferences as well. Can can you speak to the kind of local administration's perspective of how they approach solar and and the manufacturing side of things, and and what are kind of the pros and cons between, let's say, India and and China?

SPEAKER_00 10:15

We started to cooperate with uh China long, long time ago. And um we had a big cooperation with a state-owned company, uh SPIC, SPIC. They were um looking for a high efficiency technology to differentiate from let's say mainstream production like PERC at that time, and uh ISC Constance and SPIC we cooperated to to bring uh back contact technology to the Chinese market. That was in 2018. And uh so that was the first back contact technology in uh in China. That means uh the the modules look very nice on the front side because you don't have the metal on the front side, but it's also more efficient than standard technologies, uh, because the light can penetrate much easier into the front side without any reflections, and uh that was at that time the highest uh efficiency uh in in uh China, and uh the couple of companies also have learnings from that, like Longi and ICO, and went also the back contact way. And we are still organizing workshops in China. For example, last year we had uh uh BiFi Back Contact PV summit in in Yivu organized by Aiko and ISC Konstance, and uh we were showing the PV community and also, let's say, the investors and politicians in in China and all across the globe, you know, because there were also many uh visitors from India, that uh crystalline silicon technology is still not at the end of the road, we can go to module efficiencies of uh 26% in in future and still increase the levelized cost of electricity, which will be together with uh uh low-cost batteries around one to two cents per kilowatt hour. And that's a complete game changer, you know. And uh then we can also come to the beginning of our conversation, and that's the reason I think why Elon Musk is now also realizing that that's the best way to electrify his uh computing centers. So that's what we did in China for a long time, and now also the the Indian market is interested not only to adopt old technologies like PERK, but going also towards uh new technologies like BackContact and Tandem. They don't want to be uh followers anymore, they want to be also leaders in in crystalline silicon technology, and uh I'm also very proud that uh we were able now to bring the Asian conference back to India again. You know, I'm in a steering committee of Asian PV tech, and they were always discussing, okay, let's make it in Korea, the World Conference now, let's go to Thailand and uh China. And I was saying, yes, but we should consider also India to becoming the the big uh production hub. And in 2028, uh 29, that will be the the 40th uh PV sec in Asia. We go to to India, so it's we are very happy to prepare also the Indian market for being leaders. Yes.

SPEAKER_02 13:40

Do we already have uh a website we can link to that?

Why could India become the next major solar manufacturing hub?

SPEAKER_00 13:43

So so maybe the there's not so there is still a discussion in in which city it should be. I think the last time it was in Kalkata. Um now maybe New Delhi or Hydra, but it's it depends on which company also will will uh sponsor this this conference.

SPEAKER_02 14:03

Makes sense, and you know, I'm also doing quite quite a lot of work with uh India and the Middle East as well. So we might see each other there in a year or two's time.

SPEAKER_00 14:11

If you come to India, please come in October this year. We are organizing the Gigawatt Pv Tech conference now for the third time, and uh this time we will it will be at uh Premier. It's one of the major uh solar cell and module producers in in uh India in Hyderabad. And we will also invite many students to to show them that uh they should not only look in really complete new technologies like Perovskies, but also be involved in crystalline silicon steel. There's huge potential.

SPEAKER_02 14:46

Amazing, amazing. Yeah, I'll I'll try to do my best to make it. And and and as you said, you know, different technologies and what I find find with India is that you know the innovation and the the execution can be so swift compared to, for example, Europe. You know, if if they have the the backing and the both from the political side and also the industry side, things are really, really moving quick. So it's it's something that we shouldn't take lightly. And you know, there are so many smart people in India who who are really able to execute and and all that knowledge which is you know has been to the US, maybe coming back home, it's it's really significant as well.

SPEAKER_00 15:23

Yes, and and especially now also when when the PV sector is moving towards uh artificial intelligence and uh cyber security, and this is uh a field where where the Indians are extremely uh well trained to to um make this happen. So so programming and and and uh developing of new production strategies and so on. Yeah, so yeah, we can definitely benefit from their knowledge in the future.

SPEAKER_02 15:51

Yeah, indeed. And I I as you mentioned, you know, software engineering and also uh hardware engineering as well, it's it's quite there for today. So that's uh that's going to put quite a lot of uh weight behind the whole operation. And you know, in terms of uh India scaling, let's we we talked a little bit about the solar part. Like what's their approach when it comes to batteries? Like how how do they view this?

SPEAKER_00 16:14

I am not the expert, but definitely they have uh seen that uh when they want to play the big game, they have to uh set up the production across the whole value chain. And uh so they started with module production, now they are moving towards cell production to to catch up the the production capacities they have. And of course, with cell, uh I don't mean only solar cell for for modules, but cell for for batteries. And uh I think this is also picking up there in in India that they want to have also the the part of this cake, and uh I'm sure that they will be quite successful, and also hydrogen is is a big buzzword there as well. And uh silicon, for example, they also want to go this way because it will be extremely dangerous when they have almost all the parts of the value chain, but uh except of, for example, silicon or ingot wafer, and then China will stop to to uh ship uh the wafers to India, then they are dependent again. So they should build a complete independence in their country because they are energy hungry and uh they can produce the energy themselves.

SPEAKER_02 18:21

And if you look, let's say 10 years into the future, what would be your bet? We would have like uh different units or continents of trying to do vertical integration of the whole value chain, such as uh US, Europe, China, and and maybe India as well. Or you know, like what are what is the likelihood of uh sharing some knowledge as well and experience? And because based on the political situation, now we are moving towards uh deglobalization, right, of the whole um operation of any business. So what what would be your bet? How do you see that?

Is China shifting from export engine to domestic solar giant?

SPEAKER_00 18:53

Yes, I think that in future every country that that needs uh low-cost electricity, and um I'm talking about electricity because actually the whole energy sector will be moved to to electricity also because of electric cars and and heat pumps and and uh and uh things like that, or uh um AI centers. Um India, US and Europe will there will have their local vertical integrated production. And uh it's it's quite easy um estimation. I think China will be still the the biggest players, uh supplying uh to to the rest of the world as well, like to Africa and and and different places. So in 2027-8, when we will reach um or it's better to talk about 2030, because I think Europe is not ready in 2027, but until 2030, the the terawatt production will come from from China still, depending on on what demand will we have. Maybe two terawatt will come from from China, and then we will have hubs like US, India, and and Europe, where we aim to have 100 gigawatt uh vertical integrated production for self-consumption, but maybe also for for uh some some exports.

SPEAKER_02 20:21

Wow, so and quite quite a big big gap, right? And if we if you look at the the data coming from China of what they installed per year and they are surpassing every year of all of their targets, you know what's your feeling on their strategy? Is it you know until now they were producing mostly for export and uh has that changed? So now it's more for self-consumption as well, or or or are there any shifting narratives on on the political level?

Is the era of standalone utility scale solar already over?

SPEAKER_00 20:50

Yes, yes, there are, but uh in a complete different direction. So so they they produced, I think in 2025, every second module went to China still. So they installed about 350 gigawatt out of this 700 gigawatt that the world needed. And uh I heard this news uh already last year that this will tremendously decrease in in China because of net stability problems, and uh, even though they have let's say less percentage of their uh electricity in the grid than than Germany, Germany has has a more stable net for that. You know, we prepared it already for energy transition. In China it's not the case. So already last year there were some uh bad news and rumors that China will decrease their installations and uh uh of of solar and and and will put more wind energy into the grid. That that did not happen in uh 2025. But again, there are some some bad news for 2026 that this 350 gigawatt will be reduced to 150 gigawatt, so it will be only half an and uh but as you know this this uh news there are uh already since 10 years out there, the International Energy Agency is having this bad forecast, and uh Bloomberg has slightly better forecasts, but still they are saying that now it will this exponential growth will uh flatten out. I don't know um what will happen this year in China. I guess yes, it will be not uh a massive growth again. I think it will be still about three hundred um gigawatt need this year, but it will slightly reduce, it will not grow exponentially. But the good news is. Now we have very good solutions also for decentralized systems, like uh uh power the computing centers and and uh builds with um um modules and and uh battery uh for example, charging stations for for cars and so on. So even if China will not expend so much in their installations, I think now the rest of the world will pick it up. And we see it already in many countries, like for example, last year in Pakistan, there were many uh households uh using batteries and and uh uh modules even without the connection to the grid. And uh so I'm still convinced that the exponential growth will continue even if China will not um be the biggest um uh user of modules. Um I mean they will stay the biggest uh market, but maybe they will uh reduce the the growth. For sure.

SPEAKER_02 23:51

And coming back to what you just mentioned, uh what would be the the biggest bottlenecks that they face? Is it is it still the grid? Uh as as we have in Europe, for example, you know, the the the negative pricing, etc. So the the grid wasn't ready for such you know massive expansion of renewables, or or what what is the main main issue there?

SPEAKER_00 24:12

Yes, this is what I hear. I mean, here I'm really not not a big expert, but uh I was in in China and at the beginning of 2025, and I talked to many companies like Futura-san, Aiko, Longie, and they were really fearing that already in 2025 the market will uh uh reduce to only 150 gigawatt need. And uh the government has plans to install more wind capacities because they had just uh too too much electricity in the grid on on sunny days, and and uh that's why they they already changed their plans to go more to wind energy. It did not happen in 2025. Maybe it it will happen in 2026. I don't know. But but it's definitely the grid stability here.

SPEAKER_02 25:06

On a logical level, it kind of makes sense, right? Because if you talk about wind, wind is a little bit more gradual production. You don't have such peaks as with solar. So if you couple the two, then then it makes logical sense. And you know, I I've been talking to many many companies and and uh across continents, you know, in Europe, US, uh Middle East, etc. And the general feeling is that nobody is really installing standalone solar anymore, and everybody is shifting their gears towards hybrid projects. So yeah, let that be either solar plus bass or solar plus wind or all three combined. But but the the era of the standalone large-scale solar project is probably over, and we will have some more flexible solutions that will need to be built, right? What is what is your take on this?

SPEAKER_00 25:56

Yes, absolutely. And and uh and batteries are a bit thing now, storage. That that uh every uh big uh PV system will go with storage, I'm I'm I'm quite sure. And uh, you know, in Germany we we did the calculation, so the government, the uh ministry of economy, uh um did um the calculation how Germany should be uh positioned uh in the energy sector in future, and they just forgot to include batteries inside. And uh then, of course, the outcome was okay, we need uh more gas power stations to balance, and uh but but it was really uh um politically um motivated not to include batteries in order to to really have good arguments for for uh gas power stations. But if you include batteries and and batteries are getting so low cost and so powerful, then I mean the the end of the story will be it will be not only solar, of course, it's solar, wind, battery storage, and and hydrogen in the future. And then then we have the complete solution.

Can Europe actually rebuild local PV manufacturing?

SPEAKER_02 27:11

For sure. And and we made so much progress, you know, just since we last spoke in terms of uh the battery density and also solid states uh etc. I mean saw uh on the news the other day that um there is already a prototype in China that's uh fully solid state uh EV EV. So that's that's amazing to see. So that's going to be a complete game changer. Yes, the sodium, sodium battery. If they can scale that, then um yeah, we we actually cured the the problem of you know the batteries can only be used for short-term storage, and if you can bridge even the winter or a couple of months, that would be a massive, massive uh increase in gains.

SPEAKER_00 27:50

Absolutely. So for many countries, the solutions are already there without uh the necessity of bridging uh winter, but for Germany, of course, the last puzzle piece is long-term storage, and uh many people uh say that that uh hydrogen will be the final solution. I I also agree with that, but there are other other possibilities to solve that.

SPEAKER_02 28:13

For sure, for sure. And um you we started to talk about Europe a little bit, so you mentioned Germany. Uh how how have we changed since last year, since we last spoke? Uh what progress have we made or we we haven't made?

SPEAKER_00 28:27

Yes, we did progress in terms of insolvencies so far. Uh, you know, Meyer Burger uh stepped out now, Aleo and and and many others. And uh I would be actually quite uh depressed when I would not have uh read the the last message as I told you at the beginning of our interview that there are three uh billions planned to uh support German local uh production of photovoltaics. I have to investigate more which consortium is uh is uh going to go for that. I mean, there are there were many consortia planned, as you know, in Germany uh in in this Interessensbekundungsverfahren. Uh this um where uh our minister Habeck uh tried to to initiate PV production again back in Germany. So the consortia are there, and uh what was missing was was the the the dedication of of uh the German finance minister that uh he blocked everything. Now it seems that there is money in Europe. So let's see what will happen in Germany. In uh France, we still have these two consortia, Carbon and HoloSolis. In Italy we have Anel and uh Futurasan and a couple of other companies, because uh in in Italy they have this uh scheme similarly to the Inflation Reduction Act that that US brought on the table. So hopefully the other countries will also follow too, in addition to to the CAPEX to this uh$3 billion, for example, for Germany, there will also some OPEX uh contributions from each country.

SPEAKER_02 30:17

Do you think we should understand this as uh the EU kind of delegated this to the local levels of the member states? So but is it is it European financing repackaged on the local level or is it sourced from uh local governments?

SPEAKER_00 30:30

I think it's a mixture. Let's say now the uh contribution for CAPEX, as I understood, is coming from the European Union to Germany, and then each member state can put some some financing scheme also for the for the OPEX on the table. And this will be let's say financed by the member state itself, like Italy is doing, and and uh you know we we we talked a lot about how to support the companies with with OPEX, and then we had different different schemes how to do that. And um uh I think this this um uh discussion must be uh again reinitiated if if Germany is also willing to uh to support, let's say, not with um bringing uh import tariffs back, but maybe do it do it like um what what is being also discovered uh discussed on the uh European level that part of the PV systems that are installed uh has to come from um now on on European level. The wording is outside of China. Hopefully they will also have some willingness to to say the bad uh word. It can it it has to be locally produced, not only outside of China, but but local production is is the buzzword that actually has to come. So not only outside of China, because then we will have also let's say the the the production from from uh Thailand or or Malaysia coming into Europe. So part of the value chain has to be produced in Europe, let's say 30% of it, and that has to be a rule, and this is how you can initiate local production in the country, not only giving the Capex, but also secure part of the market for local production.

SPEAKER_02 32:34

Indeed, and you know, speaking of that, um what I actually feel uh that the narrative has shifted in the in the last 12 months uh can be also partially dedicated and attributed to Trump as well. So we we are squeezed a little bit more and we are realizing more in Europe that we really need to secure energy independence, and that's not just energy independence, but it's also political and also industry independence as well. So the the more crazy tariffs, etc., Trump comes up with, the the the more our politicians are actually reacting to that, and and and it it's kind of putting a little bit more urgency in their sale to to push these localized productions and to to be much more independent, as you mentioned.

SPEAKER_00 33:22

Yes, yes. So in Europe, we were sleeping for for many years. In terms of energy supply, so for example, in Germany, we we we bought always cheap gas from from uh Russia, and also in terms of defense. We just did not have any any industry or uh any willingness to build it up because uh our big brother uh US will defend us. Uh this this was always clear. Now we won't have woken up, we we have to do it, and um, so a lot of money is also flowing into uh energy security but also defense, and uh this is what we are building at the moment in Germany and in the whole Europe. So it's it it's a wake-up call.

Why is cybersecurity becoming an energy issue?

SPEAKER_02 34:11

It is indeed. And on the defense side, I actually heard some rumors here on the European level as well that, for example, you know, if we hypothetically would need to go to war, the problem is that every country is using using different ammo. So we we actually cannot we cannot fight as one unit, right? So it's going to be it's going to take quite a lot of time and also money to to harmonize and line this up. Because let's say, hypothetically speaking, if Russia attacked us, what would we do? We would we send them some strongly worded letters like please don't do it, or could we actually respond? And I think as of today, we we couldn't respond for sure. Yep, it will take about five years. And the the second part of the the defense is that that's actually being taken seriously is the cyber defense, right? And this also applies to solar and energy. So if if we don't produce our own systems, uh we we know that we we already have at least some inverter production in Europe uh with uh some some significant volumes. But if you know this cybersecurity question is coming up more and more in terms of energy systems as well, because imagine if some uh some of our adversaries would put to shut down the grid, we we really need to be careful of what type of components are we using, what type of software are we using. So have you heard anything, any support on that sense?

SPEAKER_00 35:33

Yes, yes, absolutely. And this is what Germany is actually focusing on. So each country up till now had their um focus on on um uh uh different value chain. So for example, uh Italy is going towards sales and modules because NL is very big in that, France as well. They they want to set up uh cell and module capacities in Germany. They are mostly supporting uh inverters and and also batteries, but inverters because of the cybersecurity. And uh this is what I thought that that the Germans will will support in future. I was extremely surprised about this 3 billion from European Union that it is thought for the whole supply chain from silicon. I mean, silicon we have, of course, it's Wacker and have more capacities, but in between, everything is completely missing in Gottwafer uh cell and module we had as well, but now there were more insolvencies, so so we have to build it up again. And yes, cybersecurity is a big buzzword, and uh this is what what the German um government is is focusing on, but it seems now they want to have the whole value chain, which is which is good. And when we talk also about defense, cybersecurity, what is also a good topic now for crystalline silicon is uh space applications. And uh, so we at ISC Konstanz have developed since um seven years now a solar cell that is suited for for space. We call it uh Phoenix Silicon because it's uh also repairing itself in in space. And uh, you know, Elon Musk is now shooting many satellites up there, and also Amazon uh is planning to do that. And then in order that we get independent also from US communication, we have also a program in ASA to have our own communication, and we are working on it also from ISC Constance together with ASA. That in future we will also produce our own solar cells and modules for our satellites for communication. And it's becoming a big market. Maybe you have heard also about uh the uh visions from Elon Musk now going to the moon with Moon Station and having the data centers in space and things like that. So Space PV is becoming a big market also for crystalline silicon.

SPEAKER_02 38:10

Wow, but it's it's so interesting that you guys also have uh something that's uh that's applicate applicable to space. It's super interesting to hear.

SPEAKER_00 38:18

Yes, I mean we started seven years ago in cooperation with uh US companies because they are uh yeah, US companies, of course, they have uh venture capital and are more visionaires, so we have been developing also, let's say, uh cells for for the moon and for for low-orbit uh satellites. And now with this knowledge, we approached ASAR and uh DLR and said now we we are ready to to further develop it also for uh European satellites and even to make the technology uh improved for European applications. So hopefully we we can uh even lead the market now in Europe.

SPEAKER_02 39:02

When we are talking about the space solver and producing in space, then the next bottleneck would be the logistics, right? So SpaceX is already there, they can launch satellites uh and any type of payloads quite cheap. Uh do you think we can get there on a European level, or maybe maybe other countries who can you know launch and actually uh bring the rockets down uh at similar cost scales to SpaceX?

SPEAKER_00 39:30

Yes, this is what people are working on, and and now ASA also uh woke up and are uh sending now now astronauts to the space, and uh I think it's called Artemis, where they have big plans also to send an astronaut to the moon and and uh have also visions that they want to populate the moon, not that the US will own the moon in future, you know. So uh there is some race that that uh Elon Musk activated, and now similarly uh to what prompted, now we woke up because of defense and energy security. Now also the the space activities are are uh activated in in Europe.

SPEAKER_02 40:11

And I guess also the the the underlying uh asset there is the the rare earth, right? We have quite a lot of uh uh rare metals on on the moon as well. So the question is who is going to be able to mine it and either bring it back to to Earth or or to to refine it there, right?

SPEAKER_00 40:29

Yes, I think so. This is also one of the one of the missions, and uh now also in China. Um everybody is speaking now about crystalline silicon for space applications. I think Elon Musk with with his announcement really is um uh has launched now uh a big race to the moon. He's not talking so much anymore about Mars, but but the moon is now the first.

SPEAKER_02 40:56

Yeah, I mean it's much much easier obtainable, right? Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Wow. So and and I guess the last step of uh having produced energy in space would be how would we bring it down? Like what would be the mechanism behind it?

Can US solar manufacturing keep growing without clear incentives?

SPEAKER_00 41:11

There are also projects on projects on that. You can bring it with uh microwave power down there, but but I think this is really complete nonsense, like like uh fusion, similarly to fusion. I mean, if we produce electricity there in space, we should also use it in space. It's uh local production of electricity. I mean, we we learned it from from our past, for example, for from the Desertec project, you know, there was a big project that we will produce electricity in Africa and and bring it to Europe with uh with cables and uh but this is complete nonsense because then you have also losses, and um it's it doesn't just make sense to be uh dependent on on other countries, it has to be produced locally, similarly to space. You know, if you have the computing centers in space, of course the information has to go down, but not the electricity, just produce the electricity there where you will use it. And that's that's the beauty about about photovoltaics, about solar, that in combination with batteries, you just can produce it whenever you need it and not too transport it.

SPEAKER_02 42:27

Makes sense. I mean, and I've been hearing the same, especially from the US, you know, uh there is more and more talk about distributed generation uh on larger scales as well. And I I think it it makes the most sense, right? Because if you need to transport that electricity that you produced, uh the losses can be huge depending on the distance the the power needs to travel, right? Yes, absolutely. Wow. So so there are some interesting initiatives here in Europe as well, but um maybe let's dig a little bit deeper into the US. So uh at least on the industry level, I'm hearing miss mixed signals, you know, after the the demise of the um inflation reduction act and and what is going to replace it. So obviously, there is also no clear guidance uh on the US level. Uh what what are what are the expectations from from the companies who are in solar? What is the feeling from the market?

SPEAKER_00 43:22

I mean, the companies that are already pu producing are let's say quite happy with the environment at the moment because everything that they are producing they can sell uh because um the import tariffs are so high that that actually um uh local production is is is extremely welcome. But but for future, of course, the companies would like to have more more support in in CapEx and OPEX. And uh I don't know if this is coming. I I think not. In the next uh three years, this will not come, but even without it, companies are are thinking about expansions and only because they already started the production. So let's say the Inflation Reduction Act was a good catalyst, a good initiator for that. And now uh because of the import tariffs and also let's say some local supports from from the uh states, they they have a still a good business plan, like for example, Saniva. We are now supporting with production, and they are already talking about expansions and and have their customers, and so it's running well, but it could be better when the next government or or whatever is is will support them also with with uh other incentives.

SPEAKER_02 44:45

Excellent. So so we were talking about the US, so the the the Manufacturers, they are quite happy. Is there any sort of ambition to even export from the US to other markets? Or no.

SPEAKER_00 44:58

They just have to really um cover their own needs at the moment. And uh export to other markets is is will be quite difficult for US companies. So it's really only to to cover their own needs because they can sell the the modules at at uh quite high um prices compared to to the other markets like in Europe. So so they have a protected market and there is no intention to export, only to to cover the uh the local needs. And what is happening is for example, Corning has uh set up seven gigawatt ingot wafer and they have also uh there are also many uh module producers in US. What is still missing is uh are the cell producers and and Corning, of course, let's say wants to sell all the uh um ingot uh wafer material for for the local market. And uh so they are now looking for possibilities in US also to start cell production. But I believe what could also happen that they are exporting wafers to to other countries like India, for example, and have their Indian producer which uh which is uh making the sales and also sending back the sales to US. So exports, yes, but only that the the end product actually ends in the US market because of the high prices.

SPEAKER_02 46:36

That's a very interesting use case. And I I wonder how long it can last, you know, if uh if if the market would open up.

SPEAKER_00 46:44

I think not so long. Uh I mean this case that they are that Koning is expanding uh exporting wafers and and uh making uh from selves module again because this this hole will be filled quite quite fast. I think that there will be about 10 gigawatt cell production in in US in the coming two or three years. And yes, I don't know what will happen with the import tariffs if they will stay still so high. So it could happen that US will stay a protected market for for quite a long time.

SPEAKER_02 47:19

It's quite tricky, and you know, I wonder like if there is any possibility to kind of project or manage the long-term impact of all these policies, right? Because I have the feeling that you know, in this world, you as a company you cannot really even plan longer than six to twelve months ahead. Everything is changing so rapidly, the the policy is changing so quickly, and the the geopolitics as well, you know, like like with the with the price of uh silver going through the roof, uh that also caused quite a lot of trouble in uh in the module manufacturing as well, right? Absolutely.

Can anyone still forecast where the solar market is going?

SPEAKER_00 47:52

And uh so it's not only for the producers, but also for an institute like ISC Constance is we cannot plan too much ahead. And uh, you know, in the last years there was a cut of RD money in Germany for PV, even though the Green Party was was in charge for that because uh, the Schuldenbremse, there was no money, and now our government these days fortunately is now putting again more money into RD of uh crystalline silicon um cell and module development, but mostly because of our strong machine builders, that they also um will be able in future to export their their machines, for example, to India and US, and we have the technology. But the question is also what will happen after the next elections in Germany? Will there be money again for RD of crystalline silicon or not? And that's why our uh business model we have to adapt every three years these days, and uh that's why also we um have a strategy to to go more towards space and and help ASA to establish their technology out there because space is now becoming a very strong business and I think also a long-lasting business, independent of terrestrial photovoltaics. But you are completely right. I mean the companies they are just um looking at what is happening out there, and uh with today's policies, you cannot be sure what will happen uh in the next weeks. So I am sure, then coming to your uh very first questions, I'm sure that analysts have some some long-term forecast, but it's gonna be many things can happen. Exactly. Absolutely. It's these days you cannot make an accurate forecast what will happen.

SPEAKER_02 49:56

For sure. And if we circle back to the machine builders, like can you give us a state of of the the countries who are the strongest in building the machines, let's say on a global scale, is is Germany still uh a big enough player? Or I I know that Japan and China are are really ahead of the race, but who who else would would be able to play a significant role?

What does a turnkey solar factory actually mean?

SPEAKER_00 50:19

Okay, so in terms of photovoltaics, Japan is is not a big player. It's it's uh big players are I mean leading is of course China. They have in in in every uh value chain at least 80% of the market share. And for example, in in Ingot Waiver, it's even uh 98% market share of the whole market. So China is a giant. And but still in Europe we have good machine builders for module production, which is Echo Proghetti and at Mondragon. But in Germany, we have a big focus on cell uh production. Uh so in in my home country, Baden-Württemberg, you know, most of them are located there. We have Centrotherm, we have Rena, and we have Schmied, but also outside of uh Baden-Württemberg, Singulus, von Ardenne, and many others, but also let's say on the characterization, there are good companies too, like Kalm, Wavelabs, Contron is working on MES systems, and and we have Istravision of uh optical inspection and so on, and and and and many more. So actually, Germany still has many uh machine builders, and as we speak in Frankfurt today, just in two hours, there will be a meeting of all these machine builders together with institutes like uh Fraunhofer, Ise, ISFH, us, HZB, how the the German uh consortium consisting of institutes, you know, we have that still the technology and uh are normally used as as integrators and the machine builders, how we can together again offer something like turnkey solutions out there so that the technology will be more accepted. And this is what the customers are asking for normally. It's not supplying machines, they are asking for turnkey solutions. So, to answer your question, uh question, China is dominating, but still Germany is in the race in India and in the US, also because of independence questions and also because of cybersecurity. So, the biggest argument of SANIVA a couple of years ago when they decided to go uh machines, uh, they were evaluating Chinese and German machines, and of course they realized uh the CapEx will be much lower for the Chinese machines, but they don't want to get independent on uh Chinese companies. So they selected uh German equipment, and now their expansions hopefully will be also based on German equipment.

SPEAKER_02 53:13

So it's uh it's a full circle uh in terms of cybersecurity as well. And uh when you said turnkey solution, can you define what that means? So is it is it hardware, software uh combined and it's ready to deploy, or or what what does the whole package contain?

SPEAKER_00 53:29

Exactly. So basically, a description of turnkey is that one company is responsible to set up everything and to give you the key. And if the customer is not satisfied, then they will have to cope with this company. What is happening out there is let's say some companies are cherry picking themselves, that that they have an advisor and he said, Yeah, but this turnkey is not good because this and that is um I can uh provide better solutions for screen printing and for whatever. And then a company can also decide to go cherry picking, and then they have to talk to every um company that have supplied the machines, for example, if a machine is not working, and that's quite complicated. And then the finger pointing starts. No, it's not my my uh machine, it's it's his machine, and then people are in trouble.

SPEAKER_02 54:28

And it comes comes back to the vertical integration part, right? That uh we we we seem to have learned the lessons from the car industry now, that uh once we farmed out all the all the individual components, now we are doing the reverse and we we try to vertically integrate all of those operations and components into the final product.

SPEAKER_00 54:49

Turnkey does not necessarily mean that it's like uh having the whole supply chain. But for example, if I offer a solar cell production facility, then normally the not very knowledgeable companies, which are the the the um let's say companies that did not produce solar cells and modules before, like Reliance, they are asking for turnkey solutions that there's only one company that is responsible for for the whole thing.

SPEAKER_02 55:18

Makes sense, and I mean it's easier to handle and and uh troubleshoot as well if something goes wrong.

SPEAKER_00 55:23

Yes, and you have one face to the customer and then exactly the the company has to take care of the problem themselves and speak to the other machine builders. So so it's very convenient. And what happened in the past that I mean all big machine builders have offered turnkey solutions like Centrotherm and Rena. But this time is over also because they um suffered in the last couple of years. And to offer topic solution, you also have to do, let's say, a big investment and then big um uh package to secure, let's say security package to secure if if there will be if there will be problems. And this is also what what is being discussed today in Frankfurt, how for example the government, the German government, if they want to support these initiatives, if they could give some guarantees if a turnkey will be offered again. At the moment we are offering turnkey light solutions together with Centrotherm and Rena, for example, that the liabilities are uh distributed through all the partners, but there is one partner in lead that is taking care of the of the integration of the whole production line. But still it's it's not a turnkey solution. It's like something that that you have one person that is responsible, but still the the risk is is distributed among the partners.

Follow Dr Radovan Kopecek's work

SPEAKER_02 57:06

Interesting. And uh actually it it brings me back to the Tesla example again. You know, I don't know how much you you've read about the Tesla mega packs, but they don't really get too much publicity. But uh what they did is exactly the perfect turnkey solution that they deliver the hardware, the software, and and the installation as well. So uh, you know, those those larger packs where you have, I think it's uh 20 megawatt hours per unit, and you have four units joined by a connecting station in the middle. Uh they deploy it, but they also provide the software to manage it. And this is actually one of the most profitable parts of the business uh as of last year.

SPEAKER_00 57:49

Okay. Sounds very interesting.

SPEAKER_02 57:51

We don't know what the future might hold, but uh I see we are actually coming to the to the end of our time. And uh, Rado, I really appreciate you taking the time. But before we wrap up, I I really want to give you the floor to basically talk a little bit more about the initiatives that you are working on this year and what type of people should reach out and and perhaps you know uh promote those initiatives. And we will link to all of those in the show notes below.

SPEAKER_00 58:15

Okay, very good. Thank you. That's a good platform to talk about it. So ISC Constance's mission these days on terrestrial uh photovoltaic uh platform is to um go to to countries like India and US and uh transfer technology, but we are also organizing workshops and we are organizing industry forums in in on conferences which are already existing. So this year, what will be uh quite interesting, for example, in US within the the IEEE uh PV sec which will take part uh take place in uh New Orleans in June. We are organizing an industry forum where we are inviting companies that we already talked about, like uh Corning, Suniva, First Solar for the Thin Film, but also we uh aim to uh invite Tesla because of their big 100 gigawatt plans. And the aim there is not to make advertisements for for their companies, but to talk to students because it's it's like really a technical conference. And and in order to set up production in in countries where PV production is not um yet uh there, or let's say only small production, what is very important is manpower. And also, again, make uh students interested to invest their studies into crystalline silicon photovoltaics because what is happening out there in the world, that's many um countries are frustrated. Now we have lost our crystalline silicon technology to China, and we have to go uh a complete different way, going to perovskit. No, that's not true. We also must be involved in crystalline silicon. And that's the mission of ISC Constance, to educate students in the US in the IEEE conference, or we are going also to India and are organizing workshops there. I told you already there will be a workshop in October, Gigawatt PV Tech in Hyderabad, together with uh RCT Solutions and Premier, where we are inviting companies and students to have a dialogue, what will be needed in crystalline silicon technology in future. And as I told you, it's not only going to higher efficiencies and lower cost, it's also artificial intelligence and cybersecurity and make the production uh much, much easier and not so complex. So, this is one thing, and there will be also a third conference, uh EU PVSEC, which we are working very close with uh in this year, it will be in uh Rotterdam in September, and there we are also organizing industry summit and forum sessions where together with RD people and industry we have a dialogue how to how to improve the the work between these two sectors.

SPEAKER_02 1:01:33

And maybe coming back to the students, uh students of what type of uh uh studies should join? Anyone interested in in solar manufacturing, or is there any any sort of niche that that should go?

SPEAKER_00 1:01:46

Yes, so so there are already studies for let's say renewable energies, but it's also physicists and uh mechanical engineers we will still uh need in future how to build better machines and how to improve the processes, but also let's say programmers about artificial intelligence, how to make really uh a dark factory that that uh not many people have to work there, and it will be say produced by robots and and and things like that. So yeah, it it's a broad spectrum of students that will be needed in in a renewable sector in future, also in in PV in the production sector. But we are also aiming not to educate students, but let's say workers that uh has have lost their jobs, maybe also in car industry, because it's not not running very well, also to educate them how to produce solar cell and modules. So, together with RCT Solutions and VIP, these are the organizers of the European uh conferences, we have established a platform called PV Training, where we want to train not only students, I mean, students will have normal education and then go to the companies and and help them with the new developments, but just uh blue collars, like uh workers that that want to be involved in this in this mission. And this is what Elon Musk will need the most also in the US. In order that he wants um that he will get 100 gigawatt cell and module production online, he needs people that will uh work in the factory and and uh use the machines, hopefully from from Germany to produce. He can help us. Yes.

SPEAKER_02 1:03:37

That's amazing. So I I don't know how you manage all of these uh these activities in tandem, but it seems like you're you are busy 24-7.

SPEAKER_00 1:03:45

Yeah, a little bit less, but yes. Absolutely. So I'm I'm traveling quite a lot to discuss about technology transfer, about um training and and education. That's that's my mission now. You know, I was responsible for 20 years for the technology. Now Nietzsche is doing the job and developing new solar cells, bifacial back contact, tandem, and things like that. And I'm responsible for strategy and education. And one part of the strategy is is to be involved more also in in the space arena, and but one part of the strategy is also to to have ISC constant also as a platform to train people for for PV production.

SPEAKER_02 1:04:32

Amazing, amazing. But we'll we'll make sure to link to all of these uh in the show notes below. And I hope that this is this episode, if I could pick one from the whole catalog, I hope this reaches as many people as possible.

SPEAKER_00 1:04:42

Yes, very good. Thank you. I will also post it in all my channels.

SPEAKER_02 1:04:46

Yes, perfect, thank you. That's always appreciated. But uh again, fantastic second round, really nice to have you here, and then uh let's let's meet in in perhaps Munich.

SPEAKER_00 1:04:57

Yes, Munich and then Hyderabad.

SPEAKER_02 1:05:00

Yeah, then Hyderabad is all. Excellent. We we have a beautiful thing, thank you very much and have a nice day. Thank you very much.